Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Softball Semifinal Tuesday Predictions

Click over here for the latest softball brackets.

Semifinals kick off this afternoon in Class AA, A and B, but first, some predictions.

In Class AA, Shen should have no problem dispatching Queensbury. The top-seeded Plainsmen are looking to wrap up their sixth straight big-school sectional championship and they've been nearly flawless all season long.

The other semifinal between Troy and Colonie should be very interesting. Colonie, once ranked No. 1 in the state, stumbled a bit coming down the regular season stretch. But the Garnet Raiders took care of Catholic High in the first round and shutout the No. 6 ranked Niskayuna Silver Warriors in the quarters.
Like Colonie, the Troy team is getting hot at the right time. The Flying Horses won the Big 10 for the third straight year and captured a first-round bye. Troy played small ball and went to the bullpen, bringing in eighth-grade sensation Julie Brinkman, to hold off Columbia 4-1.
This game could go either way -- Troy has a bunch of talented senior and junior position players that can all swing the bat. Their young pitchers, however, will have to hold off an equally powerful Colonie lineup to move on to the final.
But Troy has the revenge factor on its side. In the 2007 quarters, an underdog Colonie team knocked off an undefeated Troy team. Don't think the Flying Horses forget it.

In Class A, it looks like we're all set for a Lansingburgh-South Glens Falls final on Friday afternoon.
South High will have to beat cross-river rival Glens Falls, and I bet the Indians will be pumped off to try and knock off the defending state champs. Still, South High has beaten Shen this season - so we know they've still got it.
Burnt Hills plays a tough as nails schedule in the Suburban Council, but Lansingburgh was well-tested by teams like Mechanicville and Cohoes all season, so look for the Knights to glide into the final.
A South High-'Burgh final will be immensely entertaining because the Lady Knights typically play such a flawless, fundamental game.

Speaking of Cohoes, the Tigers play an upstart Greenville squad this afternoon. The Spartans beat Patroon Conference champ Ichabod Crane 5-2 last Friday - Crane beat Greenville twice in the regular season. Cohoes will need to find a way to calm down the Cinderellas from Greenville to move on to Friday's final.
It's a Wasaren League showdown on the other side of the bracket as Hoosic Valley and Schuylerville, the league's top two teams, meet for the third time this year. With Jen Mineau (HV) and Mikayla Wells (Schuylerville) in the pitcher's circle, offense will be at a premium in this one. Look for Hoosic Valley to squeak it out and play in the long-awaited final against Cohoes.

The C and CC finals are Wednesday, and it looks like Mechanicville and Duanesburg, the top seeds, will meet in the CC/C playoff on Friday.
However, it won't be easy for either team. Lake George has allowed two runs in two games thus far, and Canajoharie, the No. 11 team in the state, just rolled over two of the top teams in the CHVL to get to Duanesburg.

To recap, here are my predicted matchups for Friday's finals at Clifton Commons, all games beginning at 5 pm.

Class AA - (1) Shenendehowa vs (3) Troy
Class A - (1) South Glens Falls vs (2) Lansingburgh
Class B - (1) Hoosic Valley vs (3) Cohoes
Class CC/C playoff - (1) Mechanicville vs (1) Duanesburg

Regarding the Cohoes not being state-ranked comment, I have an inkling as to why that is. Two other Colonial Council teams are ranked, Lansingburgh in the As and Mechanicville in the Cs. I doubt there is a single Council/League/Conference in the state with three ranked teams.
Do the Tigers deserve it? Sure. With a league record of 12-4, Cohoes has had a great season. But, they couldn't solve Lansingburgh or Mechanicville in the regular season and they played a very tough string of non-league games. They didn't pad their overall record with weak non-league competition, which hurts in the ranking department, but could very well pay off in sectional play.
We will see what happens with the latest rankings which should come out Wednesday or Thursday evening.

-- Will Montgomery



Anonymous Anonymous said...

Regarding the State Rankings response, it doesn't matter what council you are in when taking rankings in to consideration.
Cohoes didn't beat Lansingburgh or Mechanicville in 2007 either, but yet they still managed to make the state rankings?
I am just confussed about how they come up with this with all things considered. Cohoes has a better record this year then last year, they also did beat Mechanicville 1 time this year, which hasn't happened in 5 years. You are right about the tough non-league schedule, it should help in the sectional run. Big Game on Friday...I am thinking it will be a coin toss. Either team could win.
I don't know what happen to L'burgh, looks like they ran in to some good pitching and just couldn't put any hits together at the right time. What hurts lansingburgh when they get to sectionals is the fact they most of the schools they face in league and non-league play are 1 or 2 classes below them (B and C) or they may play an A school from a weaker council, such as the Big 10 or Patroon Conference.

My Predictions for Section 2 Winners

Class AA
Shen vs Colonie
Final Score 3-1
Shen has a deeper offensive stack
but Colonie has Lynch, Maio, and Triano
Pithcing will be head to head
Fusco (C) vs Ferro/Sprague (Shen)

Class A
South High vs Burnt Hills
Winner=South High
Final Score 1-0
South High will only give up a few hits, Both Palleschi Girls(BH) and maybe Merchant(BH)
Marissa Carpenter (SGF)will go out with another bang this year, they also have a very good catcher who can really hit the ball

Class B
HV vs Cohoes
Could be a tight game, could be a blow out, it really could go either way, depends on what team shows up. We all know Mineau doesn't give up walks and doesn't allow many on base. But Cohoes does have some strength in the line-up with Deastyne, Ahearn, Ladue, Galuski, Kellogg and Vanelli, it's all going depend on disciplined bats...If they get down in the count and chase the riser...it will be a festival for HV. Hard to call this one, because HV really doesn't hit or field many balls.
Final Score = 1 run either way

Class CC-C
Mech vs. Dburg
Winner= Mechanicville
The have too much for Dburg to handle.
Final Score = 4-0

Class D
I can't say. but some of these games are like watching a 10U rec team...not mentioning any games.

Section 2 Softball Fan

June 3, 2008 at 10:25 PM 
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