Sunday, October 10, 2010

Section II football playoff scenarios

I am working on the Section II postseason scenarios this afternoon and will post the blurbs on the blog as soon as I'm done with each division. For Section II handbook rules on how this works, please see the Scribd documents at the bottom of this post.

Class AA, Liberty Division
Nos. 1 & 2: Shaker (5-0, 6-0) and Troy (5-0, 6-0)
Conveniently, these two teams meet at Troy on Saturday afternoon in the regular season finale, which is also homecoming for the Flying Horses. The winner grabs the No. 1 seed and the loser will be No. 2. It's that simple.
No. 3: Niskayuna (3-3, 3-3)
The Silver Warriors wrap up the regular season at Ballston Spa in a non-division contest. Since Nisky defeated Colonie and Schenectady head-to-head and cannot catch Shaker or Troy, it has clinched the No. 3 seed and will face the No. 2 seed from the Empire Division on the road in the first round of the playoffs.
No. 4: Colonie (2-3, 3-3) or Schenectady (2-3, 2-4)
In another convenient game, the Garnet Raiders will host the Patriots Friday night in a virtual playoff game. The winner earns the No. 4 seed and the loser will be playing a crossover game in Week Eight.
Eliminated: La Salle (1-4, 1-5) and Columbia (0-5, 0-6)
The Cadets' only victory of the season came against Niskayuna, but since La Salle lost head-to-head against Colonie and Schenectady, it cannot qualify for the postseason. The winner of the Colonie/Sch'dy game will have three wins and clinch the final seed anyway. Columbia has also been eliminated.

Liberty Division, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Troy, 5-0, 6-0, 256, 40, 34
Shaker, 5-0, 6-0, 205, 62, 32
Niskayuna, 3-3, 3-3, 168, 137, 22
Colonie, 2-3, 3-3, 62, 147, 12
Schenectady, 2-3, 2-4, 132, 158, 15.5
La Salle, 1-4, 1-5, 55, 214, 5
Columbia, 0-5, 0-6, 72, 205, 5.5

Class AA, Empire Division
Nos. 1 & 2: Ballston Spa (5-1, 5-1) and Shenendehowa (4-1, 5-1)
The Scotties will finish the regular season by hosting Niskayuna in a non-division game, so everything rests on what Shenendehowa does against Saratoga Springs this Friday night in Clifton Park. Should Shen win Friday, the Plainsmen will grab the No. 1 seed thanks to their head-to-head victory over the Scotties. Should Shen lose, Ballston Spa will be the No. 1 seed and Shen will be No. 2
Nos. 3 & 4: Saratoga Springs (3-2, 3-3), Bethlehem (2-3, 2-4), CBA (2-3, 3-3) and Guilderland (2-3, 3-3)
It's going to be a fun race to the finish for the final two spots in the Empire Division with four teams still alive. Let's take this team-by-team:
Saratoga: The Blue Streaks have the edge for the No. 3 seed, but will be hard-pressed to defeat Shen on the road in Week Seven. Saratoga beat Guilderland and Bethlehem, but would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with CBA. Saratoga also has a big leg up in divisional quarter points.
Bethlehem: The Eagles play at Guilderland in Week Seven in an elimination game...but that doesn't mean the winner is guaranteed a playoff spot, either. Bethlehem has lost to Saratoga, but would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over CBA. The Eagles are far back in the quarterpoint race, as well.
CBA: The Brothers defeated Guilderland and Saratoga Springs, but lost to Bethlehem. CBA hosts Albany in Week Seven.
Guilderland: The Dutchmen scored a big victory over Shenendehowa last Friday, but would lose head-to-head tiebreakers against CBA and Saratoga. Guilderland hosts Bethlehem in Week Seven.
Most likely scenario: Based on winning percentage so far (but of course, anything can happen...that's why they play the game) CBA will defeat Albany, Saratoga will lose to Shen and the Guilderland/Bethlehem winner will create a three-way tie with three division victories for the final two spots.
Here is the rule verbatim from the Section II handbook:
If the three way tie is for 3rd and 4th place, the 2 teams with the highest quarter points are in the playoffs, while the team with the lowest quarter points is eliminated from the playoffs. In this situation, if the 2 teams in the playoffs are tied in quarter points, the 3rd and 4th place teams are determined by head to head competition.
Right now, it looks like Saratoga will be No. 3 and CBA will be No. 4 – Guilderland and Bethlehem would both be eliminated - but that all depends on what happens in Week Seven.
Eliminated: Albany (0-5, 0-6)
The Falcons, who have not won a game since the 2007 season, when current CBA head coach Joe Burke was at the reigns, have been eliminated from postseason contention.

Empire Division, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Ballston Spa, 5-1, 5-1, 169, 78, 30
Shenendehowa, 4-1, 5-1, 150, 82, 26
Saratoga Springs, 3-2, 3-3, 124, 106, 24
Bethlehem, 2-3, 2-4, 97, 163, 12.5
Christian Bros. Acad., 2-3, 3-3, 131, 103, 18.5
Guilderland, 2-3, 3-3, 163, 148, 15
Albany, 0-5, 0-6, 47, 198, 0

Potential Class AA playoff schedule:
E4 CBA at L1 Troy/Shaker winner
E3 Saratoga Springs at L2 Troy/Shaker loser
L4 Colonie/Sch'dy winner at E1 Shen/Ballston Spa
L3 Niskayuna at E2 Ballston Spa/Shen

Class A
New seeding rule: In Class A, the fifth place team from one division can actually knock out the No. 4 team from the other division if it defeated the other team in head-to-head action, has a better overall record or has a better record against common opponents.

Class A, Northwest Division
No. 1: Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake (4-0, 6-0)
The Spartans, two-time defending New York State Class A finalists, clinched the No. 1 seed with a big victory over Amsterdam Saturday afternoon.
Nos. 2, 3 & 4: Amsterdam (3-1, 5-1), Gloversville (2-2, 2-4) and Queensbury (2-2, 4-2) The Rugged Rams have the inside track for the No. 2 seed, but to clinch it, Amsterdam must defeat Gloversville in Week Seven. The Huskies could force a tie and leapfrog into the No. 2 seed with a victory over Amsterdam on the strength of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Queensbury may also finish with three division victories (the Spartans play at Glens Falls on Saturday).
Amsterdam: Holds head-to-head tiebreakers over every team except BH-BL and Gloversville, which it plays Friday.
Gloversville: Holds head-to-head over Glens Falls and plays Amsterdam on Friday.
Queensbury: Holds head-to-head over Gloversville and can eliminate Glens Falls on Saturday.
Most likely scenario: For argument's sake, let's say Amsterdam defeats Gloversville and Queensbury defeats Glens Falls, which is based on winning percentages so far. Amsterdam will be No. 2, followed by No. 3 Queensbury and No. 4 Gloversville.
No. 5: Glens Falls (1-3, 3-3)
Glens Falls, with a 3-3 overall record, would trump Scotia-Glenville for the final playoff spot in Section II Class A - essentially the No. 4 spot out of the Southeast Division, meaning a first round matchup at Burnt Hills. Glens Falls also has a better record (2-0) against common opponents (Queensbury, South Glens Falls and Bishop Maginn). Scotia lost all three of those games.
Eliminated: South Glens Falls (0-4, 1-5)
The Bulldogs will host Burnt Hills in the season finale Friday night but cannot finish above the cellar even if they pull off the upset of the year.

Northwest Division, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Burnt Hills, 4-0, 6-0, 256, 48, 28
Amsterdam, 3-1, 5-1, 190, 128, 17
Gloversville, 2-2, 2-4, 116, 190, 12.5
Queensbury, 2-2, 4-2, 144, 100, 16
Glens Falls, 1-3, 3-3, 168, 166, 8.5
South Glens Falls, 0-4, 1-5, 100, 137, 2

Class A, Southeast Division
Nos. 1, 2 and 3: Lansingburgh (3-0, 5-1), Averill Park (2-1, 4-2) and Bishop Maginn (2-1, 4-2) 
 Lansingburgh can clinch the No. 1 seed outright with a victory over Bishop Maginn in Troy on Friday night. Averill Park plays at winless Mohonasen on Friday.
Should Lansingburgh and Averill Park win, they will be Nos. 1 and 2 in order and Maginn would be the No. 3 seed.
If Maginn wins, the picture becomes more complicated with a likely 3-1 logjam at the top. In that case, divisional quarter points would be used as a tiebreaker. Here is the rule, verbatim, from the Section II handbook:
If there is a three way (or more) tie for 1st or 2nd place, divisional quarter points will break the tie and set the order of seeding based on the divisional quarter points, ie. 19 points – 1st, 18 points – 2nd, 17 points – 3rd , or for 2nd place – 19 points – 2nd , 18 points – 3rd , 17 points – 4th.
'Burgh has a big edge in quarter points and can't be caught by Maginn. If there is a quarter point tie, head-to-head results are used:
If points are as follows: 19 points, 19 points, 17 points for 1st and 2nd go back to head to head for the two tied teams for the highest seed and next highest seed, the team with the lowest points moves to the lowest seed of the three.
Eliminated: Scotia-Glenville (1-3, 1-5) and Mohonasen (0-3, 0-6)
The Tartans, by virtue of Glens Falls' better overall record and record against common opponents, are out of the postseason. The Mighty Warriors have been eliminated from playoff contention.

Southeast Division, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Lansingburgh, 3-0, 5-1, 213, 93, 21
Averill Park, 2-1, 4-2, 189, 162, 13.5
Bishop Maginn, 2-1, 4-2, 187, 172, 12
Scotia-Glenville, 1-3, 1-5, 59, 146, 8.5
Mohonasen, 0-3, 0-6, 69, 223, 1

Potential Class A playoff schedule:
N5 Glens Falls at N1 Burnt Hills
S3 Bishop Maginn at N2 Amsterdam
N4 Gloversville at S1 Lansingburgh
N3 Queensbury at S2 Averill Park

Class B, Reinfurt Division
Nos. 1 & 2: Albany Academy (3-0, 5-1) and Ravena (3-0, 5-1)
Ravena hosts Academy Friday night in a battle for the No. 1 seed. The loser will be No. 2. Both are assured at least a home playoff game in round one.
Nos. 3 & 4: Hudson (1-2, 3-3), Cairo-Durham (1-3, 1-5) and Cohoes (0-3, 0-6)
Hudson plays at Cohoes Friday night. The Bluehawks can eliminate the Tigers and clinch the No. 3 seed with a victory. Cairo, which plays a non-division game at Scotia in Week Seven, has defeated Cohoes in the division.
If Cohoes wins: The picture gets more complicated if Cohoes wins, as three teams would be tied with one win for the final two spots. The tiebreaker would then come down to divisional quarter points. Hudson has 10 quarterpoints already. The game between Cairo and Cohoes was never reported, so I'm unsure of the quarterpoints for those teams.

Reinfurt Division, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Albany Academy, 3-0, 5-1, 270, 101, 21
Ravena, 3-0, 5-1, 198, 112, 18
Hudson, 1-2, 3-3, 141, 129, 10
Cairo-Durham, 1-3, 1-5, 63, 218, 0
Cohoes, 0-3, 0-6, 46, 249, 0

Class B, West Division
Nos. 1 & 2: Schalmont (4-0, 6-0) and Schuylerville (3-1, 5-1)
Schuylerville will host the Sabres in the final week of the season with a chance to steal the No. 1 seed from Schalmont with a victory. Schalmont, on the other hand, can lock up a No. 1 seed with a win.
Nos. 3 and 4: Cobleskill (2-2, 3-3), Hudson Falls (2-2, 2-4) and Broadalbin-Perth (1-3, 1-5)
In Week Seven, Hudson Falls and Cobleskill play Broadalbin and Johnstown, respectively. Odds are that both these teams will win and finish with 3-2 records. Should Schalmont defeat Schuylerville, there would be a three-way tie for second place, which would use divisional quarterpoints to seed those teams. In that case, Schuylerville would likely be the No. 2 seed, followed by Hudson Falls and Cobleskill as the No. 3 and 4 seeds, respectively.
Broadalbin is barely alive. The Patriots would need to defeat Hudson Falls in Week Seven and would also need winless Johnstown to defeat Cobleskill to create a three-way tie for third place, which would lead to a quarterpoint tiebreaker. Broadalbin trails both C-R and Hudson Falls in quarterpoints and may lose that tiebreaker anyway, even if all that were to occur.
Eliminated: Johnstown (0-4, 0-6) and Ichabod Crane (0-0, 1-5)
The Sir Bills will miss the postseason in 2010. Ichabod Crane, a Class B school by classification that played all Class C schools in 2010, was ineligible for the postseason regardless of its won-loss record.

West Division, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Schalmont, 4-0, 6-0, 239, 32, 27.5
Schuylerville, 3-1, 5-1, 240, 64, 21
Cobleskill, 2-2, 3-3, 136, 115, 12
Hudson Falls, 2-2, 2-4, 146, 150, 16.5
Broadalbin-Perth, 1-3, 1-5, 76, 289, 7
Johnstown, 0-4, 0-6, 45, 267, 0
Ichabod Crane, 0-0, 1-5, 80, 201, 0

Potential Class B playoff schedule:
R4 Cairo at W1 Schalmont
R3 Hudson at W2 Schuylerville
W3 Hudson Falls at R2 Ravena/Academy loser
W4 Cobleskill at R1 Ravena/Academy winner

Class C, North Division
No. 1: Hoosick Falls (5-0, 6-0)
It's not official yet, but the Panthers, unless they lay an egg against Lake George in Week Seven, have all but clinched the North Division title.
No. 2: Greenwich (5-1, 5-1)
The Witches, who would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker against Hoosick Falls, do own a head-to-head tiebreaker over Tamarac and appear to be slotted as the No. 2 seed.
No. 3: Tamarac (4-1, 5-1)
The Bengals could possibly finish in a three-way tie for first place with Hoosick Falls and Greenwich should Lake George knock off the Panthers, but are likely to open the playoffs on the road. Not all of these teams have played each other, so a head-to-head tiebreaker isn't possible in the off chance that all three teams finish 5-1 in the division. The next tiebreaker is quarterpoints against common Class C opponents (in this case, Mechanicville, Granville and Hoosic Valley). Hoosick Falls and Greenwich both have posted 21 quarterpoints in those games and Tamarac has 10.5 with the game against Mechanicville still to play. The tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed would then go back to head-to-head between Hoosick Falls and Greenwich, which the Panthers would win. So pretty much no matter what happens, these teams will finish 1-2-3 in this order.
No. 4: Mechanicville (3-2, 3-3), Granville (3-3, 3-3) and Lake George (3-3, 3-3)
Granville, which plays at Corinth in Week Seven, has the easiest road to win No. 4. Mechanicville plays at Tamarac (with a chance the Red Raiders could sneak into the No. 3 seed, bumping Tamarac to No. 4) and Lake George plays at Hoosick Falls.
Should Granville win and Mechanicville and Lake George both lose, Granville clinches the No. 4 seed.
The same goes any any combination of one win and two losses between the teams.
Since Mechanicville played one non-division game, all three teams will be considered tied with three or four wins depending on what happens this week. Winning percentage isn't taken into account here.
Mechanicville and Granville did not play this year, so head-to-head cannot be used in that instance.
Granville defeated Lake George, 18-12. Mechanicville defeated Lake George, 21-14.
The common opponents between all three teams were Hoosick Falls, Corinth, Stillwater and Tamarac. Here are the quarterpoint standing for these three teams in those games:
Mechanicville, 14
Lake George, 11
Granville, 10
The Week Seven game for each team will also count toward the quarterpoint tiebreaker, so this is still completely up in the air. One team can clinch it outright just by winning if the other two lose, or it could be a two or three-team tie. Only time will tell.
Eliminated: Stillwater (1-4, 2-4), Corinth (0-5, 1-5) and Hoosic Valley (0-5, 0-6)
These teams will play crossover games in Week Eight.

North Division, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Hoosick Falls, 5-0, 6-0, 217, 39, 34.5
Greenwich, 5-1, 5-1, 236, 57, 35.5
Tamarac, 4-1, 5-1, 137, 120, 21.5
Mechanicville, 3-2, 3-3, 90, 115, 19.5
Granville, 3-3, 3-3, 160, 152, 23.5
Lake George, 3-3, 3-3, 141, 87, 20
Stillwater, 1-4, 2-4, 92, 212, 7
Corinth, 0-5, 1-5, 95, 162, 6
Hoosic Valley, 0-5, 0-6, 33, 264, 0.5

Class C, South Division
No. 1: Chatham (5-0, 6-0)
The Panthers, who own a quarterpoint and head-to-head advantage over Fonda-Fultonville and Watervliet, have sealed the No. 1 seed for the fourth straight season.
Nos. 2 & 3: Fonda-Fultonville (4-1, 4-2) and Watervliet (4-1, 4-2)
The Cannoneers are still alive for a home playoff game, but would need to defeat Voorheesville at home this Saturday and would also need Taconic Hills to topple Fonda-Fultonville, an unlikely scenario. It looks like Fonda will be No. 2 and 'Vliet will be No. 3.
No. 4: Voorheesville (2-2, 4-2), Canajoharie (2-3, 3-3), Coxsackie-Athens (1-3, 2-4) and Taconic Hills (1-4, 1-5)
Let's group these teams into two camps: the two-win teams and the one-win teams.
Coxsackie-Athens and Taconic Hills need to win to stay alive, but both of those teams also need Voorheesville and Canajoharie to lose this weekend.
If Watervliet defeats Voorheesville and Canajoharie tops Coxsackie, then the Cougars of Canajo make the cut and all the other teams in this group play crossover games.
The only common opponents between all four teams in this group are Watervliet and Fonda-Fultonville. Between Voorheesville and Canajoharie, you can add Chatham, Coxsackie and Taconic Hills to the mix.
Since there are so many variables in this race - one team can clinch outright or it could be a four-team tie and all the combinations in between - we'll just have to wait and see what happens this weekend.
Eliminated: Catholic Central (0-5, 1-5)
The Crusaders failed to make the playoffs for the 21st consecutive season.

South Division, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Chatham, 5-0, 6-0, 215, 69, 34
Fonda-Fultonville, 4-1, 4-2, 167, 111, 28
Watervliet, 4-1, 4-2, 141, 68, 27.5
Voorheesville, 2-2, 4-2, 150, 108, 11
Canajoharie, 2-3, 3-3, 98, 113, 13.5
Coxsackie-Athens, 1-3, 2-4, 144, 122, 2
Taconic Hills, 1-4, 1-5, 77, 188, 8.5
Catholic Central, 0-5, 1-5, 88, 173, 1.5

Potential Class C playoff schedule:
S4 Voorheesville at N1 Hoosick Falls
S3 Watervliet at N2 Greenwich
N3 Tamarac at S2 Fonda-Fultonville
N4 Mechanicville/Granville/Lake George at S1 Chatham

Class D 
Class D playoff setup: Verbatim from the Section II handbook:
CLASS D: Teams will be ranked 1 through 6 according to Divisional record. The #1 and #2 seeds will have playoff BYES’ in the first round and play a non playoff C team. The 4th and 5th place teams will play at the site of the #4 team and the winner will play at the #1 seed in the Semi-Finals. In the other bracket the #3 seed will host the #6 team with the winner playing at the #2 seed in the Semi’s.

No. 1: Cambridge (5-0, 5-0)
The Indians host Warrensburg in Week Seven and are on pace to seal up the No. 1 seed and a first round postseason bye.
Nos. 2 & 3: Rensselaer (4-1, 4-1) and Whitehall (4-1, 4-1)
The Rams host the Railroaders Friday night in a showdown for the No. 2 seed and an opening round bye. The loser hosts the No. 6 seed in an opening round Class D playoff game in Week Eight.
Nos. 4 and 5: Bishop Gibbons (2-3, 2-3), Fort Edward (2-3, 2-3)
Fort Edward hosts Bishop Gibbons in a Week Seven tilt. The winner of that game will be the No. 4 seed and host No. 5 in a first round game in Week Eight. So, if Fort Edward wins, these teams will play again in the North Country one week later. If Gibbons wins, it gets a home playoff game against the Flying Forts in Schenectady.
No. 6: Warrensburg (1-4, 1-4)
Assuming Warrensburg can't solve Cambridge in Week Seven, they'll head to the loser of the Whitehall/Rensselaer game for an opening round playoff game in Week Eight.
Eliminated: Salem (0-6, 0-6)
The Generals, who have a bye in Week Seven, have been eliminated from the postseason.

Class D, W-L, W-L, PF, PA, QP
Cambridge, 5-0, 5-0, 193, 26, 32
Whitehall, 4-1, 4-1, 154, 88, 28.5
Rensselaer, 4-1, 4-1, 117, 59, 19
Bishop Gibbons, 2-3, 2-3, 61, 85, 14.5
Fort Edward, 2-3, 2-3, 148, 144, 13.5
Warrensburg, 1-4, 1-4, 59, 159, 9
Salem, 0-6, 0-6, 41, 209, 2

Potential Class D playoff schedule:
1 Cambridge and 2 Rensselaer/Whitehall winner, crossover games against non-playoff Class C schools
6 Warrensburg at 3 Rensselaer/Whitehall loser
4 and 5 - Bishop Gibbons/Fort Edward loser at Gibbons/Edward winner
Semifinal round:
Gibbons/Edwards winner at Cambridge
Warrensburg or Rensselaer/Whitehall loser at Rensselaer/Whitehall winner

Got all that?

Playoff Seeding 2010                                                            


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Anonymous johnson said...

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